Earth to economists: Recession isn't over

The more that things seem to change the more they stay the same,are people so surprised that the stockmarket is yet again on an upward trijectory,its quite simple,the financialy unwashed are parading across our screens,giving us there pearls of wisdom,the very same financialy unwashed who didn't see this coming in the first,so if the punters believe the recovery is neigh rhetoric,then they deserve to be put to the "sword" for a second time (and this time around it will be much more painfull!_

"I left The U.S. for Australia 17 years ago. Why? Because after the Moriel boat lift, in Miami, I had to speak spainish to get work. I looked at the struggles that Afro-Americans continued to suffer in Miami and although I was happy to see Cuban gain a better life in Florida, I was sadden that the America Gov't have dropped the ball on moral standards for it's own people. Now, I'm living in the new U.S.A. of Australia; and I hope to God that this Gov't don't make the same mistakes that America made. Anyway people, welcome to the New World Order! Does all this remind you Septic-Tank Yanks(an Aussie term) of George Orwell's book, 1984? (Oh big brother)!!!"

Posted By Walter Mitchell Jr. Melbourne Australia: November 10, 2009 8:49 am

Well Walter, speaking of mistakes, the Australian government outlawed handguns and the prople of Australia gave them up without a whimper. So you can check that "mistake" box. Yeah, the USA of Australia all right. And as for the government "dropping the ball" on moral standards – that concept is truly Orwellian – the irony here is heavy. You evidently believe in government mandating moral standards. Really? And finally, just so you know, we Yanks refer to you guys as Ausholes.

Eric,

Let's hope you're part of the 30% to 40% so you learn some compassion. There are millions of people with great work ethics who are unable to find decent work right now—no need to kick them when they're already down.

How's that Hope and Change working for ya?

How can you have a consumer nation if everything is manufactured outside this country? The wealth stays with the corporations and is not passed back to consumers. That's why everyone was borrowing beyond the edge of sanity and the bubble finally popped. As a EUropean I have only one thing to say: Americans your government failed you dearly! Both parties are corrupted to the point they make the laws that ONLY benefit the lobbyists NOT the voting majority. This recession is far from over.

Dave Head

Sure the US corporate tax rate in the Us is the second highest in th world, but very few corpoartions actually pay any. Taxes haven't driven US jobs and manufacturing overseas, the artificially strong dollar has.

Why is the dollar artificially high. For one it is the world's "reserve currency". What this really means is that other central banks and foreign financial institutions buy dollars to keep it high to help their own economies at the expense of the USA.

Another major reason that the dollar is artificially high is that the Chinese peg the yuan to the value of the dollar, rather than let it seek its own real value.

We know that the dollar has been too high for decades because of the massive trade deficits that we have seen every year. Without mainpulation the dollar would have fallen long ago and we would have seen balanced trade. Then we would have kept many of the jobs that have been exported and we would not have sent all of our wealth to China.

"Why is 10%, or even 20% unemployment considered high? Even at 20%, 8 out of 10 people are still working. Only the 2 deadbeats who probably don't want a job in the first place are out of a job. When the unemployment rate reaches 30 or 40 percent, then we have a problem. Otherwise, I don't see what the big deal is."

Eric!!

By definition unemployment means people who are actively seeking employment and can't find it. In other words you are a moron that does not know what you are talking about. How do you have a job? Unskilled labor no doubt…

I have to agree with Eric and I am skilled labor. I see so many lazy people just wanting handouts. Many do not give any true effort to find a job. Things are getting better and the doom and gloomers just hate it because their lazy asses will no longer have an excuse for the handouts they want and get! The media hates it because they will loose their listeners.

It appears it is an individual and local issue. I know quite of few people but none have lost thier jobs or had their home foreclosed on. My small business is better then last year which was my best year ever. My wife got a raise. My daughter went to attend college in Phila. and got a good part-time job the first week. Our house has gone up in value the last 3 years, we were able to refinance and save money. Our health care, tuition and some utilities have gone up but our taxes have not. There are some good bargains to be had. The stores appear busy and we still have to wait in line to get a seat at a restaurant. My IRA dropped like everyone else's but it appears like it has been a buying opportunity. I almost feel as if I have to apologize when someone asks me how things are going.

Well, at least this might stop to flow of illegal aliens into the US. With all the jobs that went to Mexico, I think soon there will be a day when Mexico starts to deport illegal Americans crossing their boarder, looking for work.

Johnson & Johnson to cut up to 8,000 jobs. I would like to comment on some of the comments from William Weldon, J&J's chairman and chief executive regarding these layoffs….

Weldon's comment – "We think the timing is such that we have this wealth of opportunities in front of us and we need the infrastructure to take advantage of them," Weldon told analysts in a conference call. "Health care is a great place to be," he said. "We feel very excited about the future."

My comment – I imagine there are 8000 people who aren't very excited about the future of health care after being cut from J&J for this reason.

Then it says — "However, he acknowledged that the economic outlook remains cloudy, adding that a recovery will not take hold until the job market improves and consumers become more willing to spend. "The economic headwinds are still ahead of everyone," he said. "Until we see easing in unemployment, people are going to be cautious in their spending."

My comment – This is the mentality of US corporations these days. They perform mass layoffs, then complain that people aren't spending because of the unemployment. I hope J&J fails and I will do my best to boycott their products because this just shows that at least this company could care less about people- only their profits. It's the new American way. Get used to it.

I left The U.S. for Australia 17 years ago. Why? Because after the Moriel boat lift, in Miami, I had to speak spainish to get work. I looked at the struggles that Afro-Americans continued to suffer in Miami and although I was happy to see Cuban gain a better life in Florida, I was sadden that the America Gov't have dropped the ball on moral standards for it's own people. Now, I'm living in the new U.S.A. of Australia; and I hope to God that this Gov't don't make the same mistakes that America made. Anyway people, welcome to the New World Order! Does all this remind you Septic-Tank Yanks(an Aussie term) of George Orwell's book, 1984? (Oh big brother)!!!

The U.S. is like Rome at the height of it's power. Like Rome, America is now burning.

This is just a symptom of a long term trend downward for the USA. Jobs willl continue to be outsourced, not-so-smart but willing to work for peanuts foreigners will still be imported and given your tech job. There is nothing you can do about this to solve the problem yourself, and have a high-paying job unless you're one of the few that are truly smart enough to be a doctor or lawyer (forget engineering – that too is going overseas…)

The culprit in this scenario is the income tax, and especially the corporate income tax, that is the 2nd highest in the world, Coupled with a high labor rate, jobs flee, and stay that way.

We absolutely have to get rid of taxes on income – all of them – before we have a chance to bring true posperity back to the USA. Otherwise, the very few that are already rich will be able to stay that way, and those that aren't will not be able to achieve anything except poverty, eventually.

We can fix it with the fair tax (www.fairtax.org) but it has to be done fast – before the Chinese, Japanese, Europeans, etc. wake up to the fact that we'll never be able to repay, or even make the interest payments on the money they're lending us. Then they'll stop. That will go a long way to bring about the "very rich, very poor, and nobody in between" that is the characteristic of so many 3rd world countries.

Wow. How does a nation so clearly divided over its politics wade through a mess of this magnitude?

Republicans and Democrats need to stop pointing fingers and accept their share of the blame. For Tim from Michigan…How helpful was an extremely expensive 7 year war while cutting taxes cuts for the Federal deficit? And you fail to note that the masterminds behind financial regulation during the Clinton Administration were Republican legislators at a time when they controlled the House an Senate. Yes, Clinton signed it into law, but there's a reason they call the bill Grahmm, Leach, Bliley…they were the conservatives who drafted the bill. And Reaganomics? The Federal deficit grew from $700 billion to $3 trillion on his watch and America moved from the largest creditor nation to largest debtor nation. Hmmm…real long-term growth there, huh?

And for my Liberal friends, yes corporate America has behaved very badly for a long, long time, but government intervention isn't likely to do away with corruption and greed.

At the end of the day, we need to make something in America again…and not debt. I don't know what it is, but it needs to be something we do better than any other country, and the rest of the world must need it!

Cheap alternative energy. Not a liberal agenda – or an easy fix – just the answer.

john: you are correct in your comment: also the unemployment rate doesnt count people who have been looking for a job so long that they have given up and i believe unemployement is also counted off of how many people receive unemployment which means people have been aged out of the system already.

Unemployment also doesnt count under employment (people working part time but want full time work): add that in with the unemployment rate and we are already over 20%.

that doesnt include falling wages or hours (i believe the work week this week is hovering at 33 hours and wages are still falling!).

also one more thing Eric: unemployment doesnt count people that were never in the market for work to begin with.

Consider yourself on the U.S.S. Financial Titanic. We struck the financial iceberg last December. There's not enouch lifeboats! Within the next four years 78 million baby boomers will retire and begun to draw Social Security and become elgible for Medicare.
We don't have a prayer! It's not the arrogance of the politicians, it is the laziness, ignorance and evil of the American people. We are doomed.

Interesting commentaries here. Not only is the recession not over, it is just beginning. Since March of this year there has been a spectacular bear market rally. But the news from Main Street is worsening. The Washington cabal, led by blinded idealogue Obama have sown the seeds to make the coming Great Depression II deep and wide. Unemployment is almost certainly MUCH higher than 10% and is headed much higher – 30% seems likely. What has been called the Great Recession is just the beginning. Stock markets, commodities, gold and silver, real estate – all asset classes are poised to lose 50-80% of current values. I hope I'm wrong, but the evidence and historical trends say the world is headed into a depression worse than the 1930's. And we have another socialist in the White House. Stay long in cash, buy gold when you can, stock up on food, water, toilet paper.
If you think Washington can or will bail us out – understand that Washington only reacts, always late, always poorly. 2010 elections will see Dems swept from power. Obama will leave the White House January, 2013. I predict by then he will less popular than Carter and more reviled.
Of course I could be wrong, but I'm betting my ass(ets) I'm right. I hope you all take steps to protect yourself. As a final thought, this phrase came to mind just yesterday "No taxation without representation".

It seems like the author wants to change the definition of "recession"… I'm not even saying that's a bad idea, but at the end of the day, there is growth happening even if businesses are too gun shy to hire and consumers too insecure to spend. Confidence in both fronts will take time… but the question is, are we going to redefine "recession" to reflect these variables? Is this more practical or just politically convenient? I don't know.

I believe we are all accustomed to business cycles, and maybe one out of every XX cycles is a mega-bust. Maybe regulations just cushion both extremes and the trade off of having limitless highs is bottomless lows. Right now, there is a lot of deficit anxiety and the expectations of immediate results. My question is, what would have happened if consumers stopped spending, businesses stopped spending, and the government did as well? Where would these numbers be? Without TARP, what would our financial system look like? None of us can know for sure "what would have happened", but it is possible the economic nuisance we are dealing with now is many times better than what we would have been dealing with had nothing occurred.

Ask an unemployed economist if we are in a recession…..if you can find one.

gotta retain that "top talent" HAHA

Robin, it will be called the The Great Wreckovery.

"Why is 10%, or even 20% unemployment considered high? Even at 20%, 8 out of 10 people are still working. Only the 2 deadbeats who probably don't want a job in the first place are out of a job. When the unemployment rate reaches 30 or 40 percent, then we have a problem. Otherwise, I don't see what the big deal is."

Eric!!

By definition unemployment means people who are actively seeking employment and can't find it. In other words you are a moron that does not know what you are talking about. How do you have a job? Unskilled labor no doubt…

I used to make $80,000+ per year, and worked for my company for 28 years – then I was let go along with 340 other people this year (341/1100). I can't find decent work, and have decided to go back to school, along with may other "gray hairs". Let me assure anyone ignorant enough to suggest that the recession is over: it is not! I have completely reigned in my spending to the bare minimum, and will get my first unemployment check (ever!) this week. I've sold my boat and my Harley, and I turn the heat off at night. I look forward to a better situation, but have only hope and ambition to latch on to at this point!

@CB — We haven't been an industrialized country, nor an industrialized economy for some time now. We import most of what we use and consume. Also, our infrastructure is in bad shape. Our bridges, roads, and sewer systems, are in need of major repair and up-grades. Yes, we're getting very close to third world status. Check the figures on poverty, homelessness, population growth, the number of citizens on government assistance programs, living wages, and employment opportunities.

Nick L,
You're a dunce.

^ I agree.

MANY are underemployeed and 1/2 that are employed are worried about losing thier job at any moment.

Personally, my income is down 40% and the ONLY debt I have is my mortgage and wish I didn't have THAT. How the heck do you adjust down 40% in a year? Morning news said manufacturing and auto sales are down. NO S$#@! We don't DO that here anymore. Stoopid people outside the midwest don't think we need too and corporate America has sold us out. This IS gonna get ugly. We are quickly headed towards an socio-economic society wher there are 10% haves and 90% have-nots. NO middle class.

The US used to be a country of opportunity, and the reason for that was that there was a lot of manufacturing here and anyone who worked hard could save money to buy a car, a house, a boat. This was not the case elsewhere. But now, it is China that manufactures all the goodies we buy, and the land of opportunity has moved there. Nevermind, that they do not respect human rights, and do not abide by copyright laws. All we see are the $$ signs, when we think about what we can sell to that huge population. So, we are still not learning from history – let's look at Japan – we're not such a great source for imported goods for them are we? We won't be an exporter to China either, we will be a good source of commodities though – like any other mineral rich third world country.
I have no idea how we as a country will get out of the recession, with so many people unemployed, what can happen to change that. All the positive economic news are based on companies cutting costs, not growing their businesses. Which industry will grow enough to start hiring again – is it the financials? Tech? Automotive? Service? Healthcare? What's out there that has the short term potential for growth?

"Why is 10%, or even 20% unemployment considered high? Even at 20%, 8 out of 10 people are still working. Only the 2 deadbeats who probably don't want a job in the first place are out of a job. When the unemployment rate reaches 30 or 40 percent, then we have a problem. Otherwise, I don't see what the big deal is."

Eric!!
10% unemployment is the equivalent of millions of people being out of work who can't pay their mortgages,eventually lose their homes and require billions more of our tax dollars for support. Think of it as if the Post Office could not deliver 1% of the mail. Millions of peices of mail would not be delivered.

Then there is the end result of sustained high unemployment, when the unemployment benefits run out. At that time some of these people will be at your house to take your shit. Beacause in the end, people will find a way to support and feed their families.

Full employment is said to be around 5% uemployment. Meaning there is still 5% of the people that are basically will always be unemployable. That is what we should shoot for in a economic recovery. If you live in Detroit you know what cronic high unemployment can do to a community.

Daniel,
Most people don't follow the crowd, they are just trying to live in a climate of rip-offs from insurance to healthcare and beyond. You don't have a crystal ball even though you think you own a pair. Get off your throne and spend a penny you cheap @##

Some of you people need to take an economics class. Of course our wages are going to decline. Get a load of the movement of labor between the US and MX. Prices equalize as do inputs. Higher wages in the US cause people to migrate there. Migration causes an increase in wages (due to a decrease in labor) and a decrease in our wages (due to an increase in labor). Basic economics. We are by no means becoming a third world country simply by the fact that we are an industrialized country with a solid infrastructure to facilitate business.

America is screwed. The difference between now and before is the GREED factor. Never in history has our own government stolen so much money from the People and giving it to their cromies in government.
Let's take CIT for example: Your precious and thoughtful government dispersed 2.1 Billion dollars to a company that still filed for bankruptcy and laid off all their employees. No accountability and 2.1 billion dollars missing!!!
When will you people become furious and stand up and say enough is enough? This has nothing to do with politics and parties and has everything to do with Integrity. Remember that word, "Integrity", because it won't be in the dictionary much longer.

Lot's of blame game going on. Bottomline is that it matters litle who did what to cause what, when or how.
What matters most is what we DO about it from here.

Live with Intention,
Dr Bill Toth (ret.)
DrBillToth.com

This recession is the best thing that ever happened to me. I was sitting in cash during peoples irrational exuberance and due to their sometimes irrational fear that drove several stocks down to bargain basement prices I have made extraordinary returns…probably the quickest increase in networth I will ever see in my lifetime. I wish so many people didn't have to lose for me to win but I can't say I personally regret that reality has struck because at least I can now buy a house at a reasonable price instead of twice what it's worth. I hope those that overpaid learned for this horrible experience. If you are opposite the crowd and the crowd is wrong then stick by your principles and follow through. Following the crowd rarely works.

We're headed straight for third world status. Anyone who doesn't see it is not keeping up with the process of our economic decline over the past half century. Lower wages and a lower standard of living are just around the corner.

Nick L,
You're a dunce.

I am doing just fine economically speaking, thank you very much. I stuck with a job that continues to be steady, although it isn't my favorite thing to do every morning, but hey, I am the boss in this field now and I am also the expert around here now. I continue to invest in oil companies which have gained more in 2009 than what I lossed in 2008. So get with the program…invest your portfolio in energy companies and also get a job in industries that are growing.

I would say the recession is going to linger for a while; here is why. First of all unemployment and secondly the demographic winter. What fueled the recovery of the recession back in the early 80's were the baby boomers. Well, with the birth rate down and negative population growth in many parts of the world we are in for a demographic winter, and a longer recession then we think. Your greatest spenders are people in their 20's, 30's and 40's. Hmmm, let's do the math. Birth rate decline = negative population growth = fewer young people = less consumers = long recession. The overpopulation myth is really doing it's work.

"Tim in Michigan" is a smart man. Read his post, a few comments below mine. He is somebody who obviously did his homework on why the economy collapsed, and why our economic future is headed towards armagedon if Obama and his fellow liberals continue this unprecedented spending spree.

I used to be the type of person who said "we need MORE regulation!" If I saw corruption and greed, my answer was "MORE regulation!" It's a very easy thing to say, and I soon realized that it was a cop-out answer for those who are too lazy and/or stupid to look at what REALLY happens when too much government regulation and interference occurs.

Why is 10%, or even 20% unemployment considered high? Even at 20%, 8 out of 10 people are still working. Only the 2 deadbeats who probably don't want a job in the first place are out of a job. When the unemployment rate reaches 30 or 40 percent, then we have a problem. Otherwise, I don't see what the big deal is.

For the 90% of people who ARE employed, prices for pretty much everything have dropped in the past year. If you have decent credit and a job you pretty much can sign & drive a new car off the lot for example.

Many of the 10% who are not employed have to look in the mirror. Yes something called personal responsibility which has gone out the window especially with ones finances.

Those of us who don't need to do christmas or the 'holidays' or need to spend $120 a month on a cell phone plan and have a 60 inch plasma TV (likely bought on credit) are doing fine.

Everyone keeps saying this recovery will be different than others and job growth will be slow. Wow that is an amazing deduction Sherlock. You don't have to be a genius to see that the dunce in the White House is doing everything he can to destoy the private sector with bailouts, government spending, more taxes, more regulation, cap and tax, healthcare. pay czars, ect. We need a small government, low taxes and a business enviroment that is competitive with the rest of the world. We are screwed until at least 2012. Unemployment will be 15% by then. Welcome back Carter! I blame Obama's election on Bush. I wonder if the libs will blame Palin's on Obama. We need a real conservative who understands the government does not fix problems, only makes them worse. But don't lose hope, after only Carter there is a Reagan!!

Lindsay:

I'm sorry to say but I think you are completely correct! I think the chicken little syndrome will soon be returning among most consumers. The real numbers have been obscured and skewed by the massive government spending, but our stock markets charts over the past 2 years have been remarkably similar so far to how they were in the Great Depression so far.

I think we are about to see a rapid deterioration of economic conditions, as problems still stewing in the real estate market have never really been addressed or properly corrected, and commercial real estate, just starting now to get media attention, will shortly become our next financial bomb!

I hope before this is over with, they do not start calling it "the Great Catastrophe".

We are a debtor nation. The fact that we allowed anyone to get loans even without much prerequisite is what cause the housing boom. Then those that were greedy in this market bet it all on poor investments. Walla the market crashes.

The markets work on greed, the greedier you are the more you suceed. Companies might be playing ball now, but what's going to stop them from making this same mistake again?

Tom it is created by corrupt government and business practices that's why they bailed out so many bank's and Government Motors they don't care about the people on main street but they are going to wish they had because money is only good if you have poor and rich when the poor doesn't buy anything it will hit the rich right in there bank account.

With fiance un-employed and a 3 year old without insurance and a house payment of 1215 I think were lucky to just be holding on………christmas, holidays looks like a lump of coal for us at least the bank exec's will enjoy the holidays….I believe in Santa Claus

I am a small business owner and the following is probably closer to what most small business owners are feeling now.
More government will not allow me to employ more people. The trillion dollar health plan will not give me the funds to expand, the recently passed cobra legislation will make me hesitant in hiring full time people. The cap and trade coming in 2010 makes me cautious. I don't care if you are Rep. or Dem. we have to get a grip on Washington spending. Looks to me like we need to get rid of few more incumbents in 2010 like we did this past week

America is still in a recession and the goverments answer is to put America on welfare,and as you know once on welfare it is hard to get off welfare!!! The banks need to stop getting handouts get to work staighting out their mess. And wallstreet gains are just the spreading out the stimulus money by moving the money from company to company and shoring up the stock profits as a gain. which are false gains.

Lindsay, very informed synopsis and said very eloquently. We have been down this road before but we always expect a different outcome. We cannot spend our way to prosperity.
Mike, you are also correct but uninformed. The lax regulation ocurred primarily under the same people that are in power now. Barney Frank and Larry "I think I am an economist" Summers were just a couple of the people who turned their backs when regualators begged for regualation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two GSE's were actively buying up any mortgage that banks could make to make huge profits off the interest rate spread from the super cheap money only they could borrow from the government. At the same time with the direction of the government making housing available to anyone with a heartbeat. If your a bank and can make the loan and sell it to the government why wouldn't you? So they did. We know how that ended don't we.
Then you had the change in regulation under the Clinton administration that allowed the banks to get into the investment business in 1999. Hence derivatives, CDO's, and all of the other exoctic financial instruments to hedge risk were born. That worked great as long as housing prices continued to rise. Unfortunately we now know that they didn't. By the way, what ever happened to financial reform anyway? Oh yeah I forgot, its hard to reform an industry that is contributing billions of dollars to your re-election campaigns isn't it.
As for "trickle down" you mention, you will eventually look back on history in envy to get the growth that resulted under "Reaganomics" after what your going to experience here in the next couple years. How about instead of trickle down we will call it a "black hole". If you know your science a black hole basically swallows everything around it. Just like what the government will do soon with Social Security and Medicare bankrupt and if a national healthcare plan run by the government is added to this mess. There is simply not enough dollars to be taxed to pay for it.
The present value of future obligations promised for just Social Security and Medicare is currently 99 trillion. That means we would need 99 trillion dollars saved now to pay out what was promised. Since the entire GDP of the U.S. economy is 14 trillion, it might be possible for even you to do the math. If that doesn't frighten you, it should. We are creating a "financial tsunami" in this country that is going to destroy future generations.
Margaret Thatcher once stated "Socialism only works until you run out of other peoples money". That could not be a clearer analogy.

Is Michael Moore a genius or what?….people do not rebel because they are still too comfortable… give the masses celebs, Reality TV, sports and medication.What a con and it's on going through the ages. There were fire works in the gulf and champagne at home

Michael,
I can not believe that you are still trying to pin the problem to Reganomics" and "trickle down theory. That was 25 years ago. A slew of politicians and others (both Democrats, Republicans, Independents) have had a chance to move forward.

PS By the Reganomics is spelled wrong. It is Reaganomics. And Ronald Reagan economic solution at that time period did reduce 22% inflation to less than 5% inflation.

For the past 15 years, we have been rapidly moving towards a 2 class system; the rich and the poor. Our government has moved towards governing by big special interst lobbists. As a whole the nation has moved out of recession but we need to start defining microrecession and microdepression areas. Over 1/2 the population is experiencing microrecession or microdepression.

Those employed especially govt workers and many educators are still experiencing a very nice lifestyle. As the state and local govt run out of money because they can no longer keep increasing and now are seeing a drop in public revenue collection, they will start experiencing similar financial problems found in the private sector. Economists are predicting govt workers will see a big impact next year with decreased revenue.

Lindsay, your comment was well said and right on the mark!

With banks now seeking to take advantage of interest rate limits prior to any forthcoming "reform" and at a time when many retailers look to the holiday season to "get in the black", I fear there will be a further chilling effect on the economy. One can only assume the restriction within our economy is only going to worsen.

Isn't it interesting though? The banks created this mess, we bailed them out, and now they're sticking it to us with daily compounded interest rates near 30%, all the while you and I can't get more than 1% on money market? The greater question is why do the American people continue to allow our elected officials to tolerate such predatory tactics?

For my it was clear from the very begin, that the recession can not be over, because all taken measures have only the effect to damp the economy free fall down,but the mechanism is still there: it is not dismantled.
therefore,the story could and can repeat itself again and again…
Just my view
Homero Velazquez

Is this really a recession or is this just a correction from artificial circumstances created by corrupt government and business practices? Maybe it's the same thing, but to expect a return to where we were three years ago in the next decade is idiotic. I feel bad for all the people still paying for houses that were inflated in price so a select few could line their pockets with money. Lets face it if anyone with a pulse couldn't get a loan for a house then the prices of houses would never have gone up the way they did etc, etc. So once again the rich get richer and the vast majority of people just got f'd. Greed. Gotta love it.

Lidsay, you are an idiot. Lax regulation got us into this mess – - "Reganomics" and "trickle down" did not work, did it? Look at the mess it created.

Nate brings up a good point. Everyone thinks only the Government can "create money". Can someone tell me how Frational Banking practiced by the so-called "private" banking system doesn't perform a similar feat of magic? For those interested, Wikipedia has good discussion on Fractional Banking (use your search engine to find the link). Face it, as the little guys we're getting screwed by the Federal Reserve, Treasury, Wall Street, and the banking system. Washington doesn't care about us (witness the speed of bank bailout vs any meaningful reforms in banking, credit cards, medical care, you name it for the average Joe). To paraphrase Lenin – Anyone not part of the wealthy class supporting the status quo is nothing more than a "useful idiot". Why would you support something so decidedly against your own good?

I had been travelling around Hong Kong and Southern part of China, it seems to me their domestic market is so vibrant. You can see everywhere spending money, recession is not a word at all. BUT you see very very little foreigner from America and Europe. I had heard from many manufacturers, their products are shipping to this marketplace, including makers from Japan,US and Europe enjoying good sales. Maybe this is the reason, economy is getting better because of this ? But how long it could last since the US unemployment rate is still alarming ! What happen if US economy is recover ? Will China, US and Europe combine economy will create a even bigger booming than ever did ? We pray for a better future global economy.

Don't expect any increases in hiring for 2-3 years. With expiration of Bush tax cuts, possible cap and tax legislation, a healthy dose of inflation on the way, and health care increases why would small businesses hire without any forseeable increase in demand.

The US economy is propped up by unrealistic over inflated valuation of assets that was designed to accumulate large sum of cash in a small number of people's pocket while the general populace and the government borrow money in an vain attempt to sustain the above mentioned over valuation. Where else can this economy go but down?

Scott, you're right, the 3% bump to GDP did come from government borrowing money we don't have. But, where do you think the money comes from when the private sector is spending money?

Our economy is, and has been for hundreds of years, a CREDIT economy. Money is credit, vastly more than it is the printed stuff that we "have".

Before the credit crunch, consumers were doing most of the spending, but it wasn't coming from money "they have". It came from borrowing huge amounts of money against the appreciation in their homes. You can be against that sort of thing, but don't pretend that the recent government stimulus has introduced the idea of us spending money we don't have. It has only shifted the debt from the private to the public sector. In the end, it's all on us.

Furthermore, if you take the sum total of public and private sector debt, it hasn't been ramping up at some unheard of rate since the government stepped in. The total has been climbing steadily, just as it always has. If the total debt had gone off the charts, then economic activity (e.g. GDP) wouldn't have been dropping for three quarters in a row.

It sounds like you're a nice fiscally-responsible citizen, but you have to understand that macroeconomics doesn't work the same way your home finances do. That's a naive view of the world, that won't help us solve any problems.

I agree with Scott. And I'm a supporter of stimulus packages and Government spending – Its the right thing to do in a major economic downturn, where would things be if they hadn't spent the money? Still, let's not paint an overly rosey picture of the situation. If consumer spending accounts for a large portion of our economy, it stands to reason unemployment will be a factor in any recovery. Given that it continues to rise "officially" over 10%, unofficially probably greater than 17% (counting underemployed and those no longer eligble for unemployment benefits). I just don't buy the "unemployment is a lagging indicator" arguement with respect to this recession. The nation has undergone a fundemental economic shift with no historical precedent. We have shipped well paying jobs overseas with little prospect of their return. Wages have remained relatively flat for years, investments/real estate values (residential and commercial – another crisis in the making) have declined, bank failures continue, large banks are reluctant to lend (our $$$ BTW) while handing out egregiously large bonuses, credit card fees keep going up, medical expenses continue spirilling upward, balance of trade is skewed against us, Government deficit/debt increases at unprecedented levels, etc. The American worker (consumer) is tapped out and inflation is there in back ground. Anecdotal evidence in my office indicates that merchants should be prepared for a somber holiday season. I think its premature to say the recession is over until we have more numbers that clearly articulate that position. One quarter does not a recession or recovery make.

I'd love to get more information behind the findings of the "non-pension wealth." Government retirees with subsidized pensions aren't feeling the pinch of this recession nearly as much as those private sector folks whose retirement depends on 401ks and IRA's. It's no surprise that these government labor union retirees are all about raising taxes in local elections to maintain their comfortable recession-proof way of living.

I truly do not think there is a recovery. No matter what these economists say. It just doesn't make sense. If more people are being laid off, they don't consume. 70% of our economy is consumer spending. So, there is no real recovery. What we are seeing now it all the money that the government has pumped into the economy; the so called "stimulus" (=more debt). Just wait for one or two more quarters when these monies start disappearing. Then we will see if the economy is recovering or not. Also, what's the purpose of a growing economy is people do not have jobs?

Even a dead cat bounces. This recession is far from over. It will not take place without a substantial recovery in jobs and production.

Economist to Carla Fried: Stick to what you know, which is, apparently personal finance. The definition of a recession is an economic term and has nothing to do with how the man on the street "feels". Leave determination of whether the recession is over to the experts in this field.

The point of all of this is that the massive stimulus package passed by the Obama administration did nothing to address the long term health of the private sector. It was nothing more than a Viagra pill for the economy, with the effects not lasting more than a few hours. The underlying fundamentals of the economy are still very weak, with business fighting the overwhelming suffocation of government regulations. The answer to all of this is the same prescription given in the early 80's after the last recession. Cut taxes, reduce government involvement in the private sector, and shrink government overall. Stop the excessive spendng and borrowing from Washington and free the American entrepreneur to build a life for himself (and income to keep) and hire people. This will lift the spirits of the American people and rebuild our economy once again. Freedom, not tyranny!

The unemployment isn't always the lagging indicator. The traditional economic TEXT book model no longer works very well. We have seen through this recession. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics does not provide statistics for labor outsourcing firms outside of this country. The outsourcing your firm is incredibly an easy process. The unemployment may go down to 7.5%, but it will never be 4.2% before this recession.

The GDP is probably being buoyed by government spending and the resultant spin off, but I think is of much greater concern going forward is the proportion of GDP that is attributed to money inflows from abroad to plug the current account deficit, if these inflows were to slow of stop the impact on the GDP would be dramatic. For example if the current account deficit is running at $600 bln and you apply the GDP multiplier the net effect on GDP is $4.2 trillion. At some point the foreign appetite for the US currency and debt is going to stall.

If you wanted to imagine how to describe how a nation's economy might look in the midst of a bear market rally, to anticipate the mixed emotions of the herd just before the next wave of slaughter in equities, can you imagine a better description, a more perfect oxymoron, than 'jobless recovery'?

We have about 15 million unemployed and 10 million underemployed in this country. It's hard to see where we're going to find this many new jobs. Some ideas:

Balance trade. The $360 billion annual trade deficit is equivalent to about 6 – 7 million jobs that are somewhere else when they should be here, mostly China and OPEC. Do it today.

Civilian conservation corps. Like in the Great Depression, when it quickly added about 1 million new jobs in a year in a country that had 100 million people. Building and repairing parks.

Works progress administration. Similar to CCC: fixing bridges, roads, and tunnels. Big impact for small $$$.

Companies made very bad investments from 2000 – 2008, lost most of their money, and are still laying off hundreds of thousands of workers. They can't be counted on to drive the recovery. The states have wasted very large amounts of money, so they're out, too. Only the federal government can fill the gap.

So, I say, start taxing and spending (instead of borrowing and spending, like Booosh did). We'll have to tax the rich; they're the only ones who still have any money left.

Technically, from a strict economic scientist's perspective, the economy has probably hit bottom and is in a recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator and doesn't increase until 1 or 2 years into a recovery. With 10 million people out of work, it will probably be more like 2 to 5 years before we get back to where we were before the Great Recession.

There has probably been a culture change from the Great Recession, like the change after the Great Depression. I think it will be a long time before people start using those credit cards again. I also think people will be scrutinizing purchases for value, necessity, and quality.

We had a long period of time where we had stable access to credit, stable access to products, stable access to product replacements, and a stable dollar. This stability drove ideas like "Just In Time Inventory", outsourcing, and trading capital costs for monthly service costs.

In this recession, we saw our economic world turned upside down in the course of weeks as companies suddenly providing critical services went out of business with no access to credit.

People are going to be more careful about committing to those "low monthly payments"; they know now that they can become high monthly payments in a heartbeat. People and businesses are going to become much more capital independent than in the past. They are going to be more careful about betting their economic livelihoods on someone providing a "just-in-time" service.

My 100 year old grandmother raised a family during the Great Depression. She never used credit to buy anything. I don't think I've seen her use a credit card once. It's cash or check and she saves for a big purchase ahead of time.

This recession, unlike previous recent ones, has caused a lot of psychological damage that will take a generation to heal.

Ah…..yes, by definition the recession is over. The trailing indicator of unemployment is still….trailing. JUST LIKE EVERYONE KNEW IT WOULD. Stop making up stories.

It's good to see a little common sense approach to things for a change. Of that 3.5% GDP growth, 3+ percent of it (exact number depends on which report you believe) came from government spending. That's spending money WE DON'T HAVE. So, it's a bubble…again. When will the American people ever learn?

In one sense we may be heading out of the recession, as companies learn to earn more with less employees.

But this appears to be the new business model that will not change anytime soon. We are going to have to create new companies to absorb the excess unemployed. It will be a lot like coming out of WWII when returning GIs had to find employment. That took a few years to absorb all.

This in turn will have a big impact on immigartion in this country, by slowing the tide rushing in and possibly causing near zero population growth as many leave for 'greener pastures'.

unemployment is always a lagging economic indicator… Yes the recession is over..but there will not be an uptick in employment or spending for awhile.